Will July Rain Disappoint and Raise Inflation?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that July is likely to see below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country due to a strengthening El Niño.

Rainfall is expected to be less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). This comes after India experienced its fifth driest June since 1901 with 39% deficient rainfall.

Central, western and northern India are likely to be worst affected. Delayed sowing of kharif crops like paddy, pulses, soybean and cotton has already dropped by 23%. Experts fear this could lead to lower agricultural output and higher inflation.